Friday, January 30, 2004

TREND: Small Business is HOT -- once again

Small business initiatives are sprouting everywhere. In the press it seems like everyone is hot again on the small business (See related news stories about Microsoft, Salesnet, SAP, IBM and Symantec.) And that will mean everyone is going to be hot on channels. You cannot cover the small business market in the US without channels. Do the math: 8 million small businesses. To claim to cover The US small business marketplace would take 80,000 sales reps assuming you had a hundred accounts per rep. Hence the need for channels.

The interest in small business is occurring for two reasons, the economic recovery and the technology life cycle. For the economic recovery to continue in 04, small and medium businesses have to participate. In 03, enterprises started refreshing technology. The DOW, S&P and NASD are at 52 week highs if not 156 week highs.

But unless we get the rest of the economy on board, this bull market will run out of power.

Unlike previous technology growth spurts (LAN, WAN, Internet), today's growth will be driven by business growth and investments in productivity, not new revolutionary technology. The technology life cycle dictates that as technologies mature, they have to be sold to a broader market for the vendors to maintain revenue growth. Furthermore, the technolgoy life cycle is correlated to the channel life cycle. Dominant channels shift from specialized, consultative channels to broad, infrastructure channels as a technology matures. Oracle, IBM, Microsoft all are subject to these channel laws, hence the urgency for small business sales.

Scott Karren, The Channel Pro


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