Thursday, October 30, 2003

MODEL: Wi-Fi ISPs -- Free will trump subscription

Posted from Tokyo

I'm glad public Wi-Fi access points are finally becoming more common. Many of the airports in Europe coffee shops in America and hotels in Asia are installing 80211.b networks. Internet access is getting much easier. Since I have had this in my home since 1995, I impatiently look forward to the day when universal, transparent access is available.

Unfortunately, the business model is all out of whack. Let's say I subscribe to T Mobile's service (which I do) for a couple hundred a year because I am constantly on the road. However, when I go to the airport, it has Wi-Fi (and Centrino signs everywhere), but they are called Waypoints, not run by T Mobile. In other words, to use it, you have to pay another onerous fee and go through another registration process.

Two paths are likely for Wi-Fi coverage models: free or subscription. If I believed the economics supported it, I might predict cross billing, roaming and universal coverage ala the cellular model. But since there is very little cost to deploying such networks (a computer and a few access points and $50 a month for a DSL line) I am betting on a lot of free sites from businesses looking to attract traffic.

Don't expect Wi-Fi ISPs to be a vibrant, profitable channel.

scott@ChannelVentures.com  


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